Look! Up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s…my taxi!
We haven’t noticed any people from Krypton flying around our skies but we are certainly closer to the world depicted in The Jetsons, the animated sitcom that originally aired in 1962. This cartoon was remarkably good at predicting the world of the future. We now communicate via video calls; we watch flat screen televisions; electronic sliding doors are commonplace; we have vending machines for food; electronic toothbrushes; moving walkways; robot cleaning devices and life in general is assisted by various labour-saving devices. And just like our society, everyone on The Jetsons complains of the exhausting hard labour living with the remaining inconveniences. Items that today we might call first-world problems.
Despite this progress, we are yet to match the way George travels to work. He commutes in his aerocar with a transparent bubble.
But we are making progress.
The technology in drones has been progressing at a rapid rate. There are 26 countries that are trialling or planning drone delivery operations today. 17 of those are already delivering parcels as we speak and 13 are using drones for medical deliveries. There is huge variety in what is being delivered by drone. New Zealand had the first pizza delivery by drone (I am not sure if a pizza is counted as a parcel or, to many, it may be medicine.) In Germany, industrial parts and pizzas are being delivered by drones – presumably by separate ones. Coffee is being delivered by drone in the only place where excess is the norm – Dubai. In the UK you can have your new phone delivered by drone.
Many people speak of regional drone deliveries but they will initially be used in highly congested areas. Drones have a complex mathematical formula of weight and range and charge. Drones need to be as light as possible because energy is expended in just keeping the drone in the air. To fly further distances, a drone relies on the amount of energy available in a battery. That seems easy – increase the size of the battery. When you increase the size of the battery, you increase the weight so you lose some of the gain. Increase the battery some more? Sure, then you need larger motors to lift the extra weight which, you guessed it, increases the weight and you need more battery and…you get the picture. The real sweet spot here is a drone that travels in a city like Beijing or Sydney where traffic is a nightmare. Sending a delivery drone to a regional location where there is good road infrastructure doesn’t make a lot of sense but if a location is remote and roads are abysmal, send in the drones.
The next step is transporting humans. It won’t be long before you hail your taxi and a drone lands on a skypad near you. And Australia will be leading the way. Dallas, LA and Melbourne will start a trial next year of an app-hailed Uber service. Forget new motorways or tunnels – this has the possibility of revolutionising transport. A one-hour trip from Melbourne’s CBD to the airport will take just ten minutes by air. The initial trials will be with piloted drone like devices. The long-term view is that you will hail a driverless drone and then up to four passengers will board an electric air taxi (they need to come up with a better acronym than EAT) and arrive safely at their destination.
George Jetson – move over. Here we come!
Tell me if you would feel comfortable boarding a driverless drone at ask@techtalk.digital
Mathew Dickerson